Great piece as always. One key difference that enabled in great part the lowflation of the 2010s and the printing press policy by extension was the implosion of the real economy coming off of the China Urbanization/Industrialization led boom and Shale. This left excess capacity in pretty much anything you wanted and most importantly commodity and energy prices that were rock bottom for a decade plus. We now face a much more resource constrained economy globally; ask any business owner and people, cost of money, energy, and pretty much any input but office rent is a problem.
The end of China's construction boom may give some relief to industrial commodities, but energy is no longer cheap; the days of $30-40 bbl of oil are gone. So are the days of cheap and abundant Nat Gas.
I am not a secular inflacionista, but also have a hard time seeing we go back to 2% stable inflation, 0% rates, and QE. The fiscal trajectory is also concerning. Crossing my fingers that we don't see the day the Fed has to chose between rates and the USD/inflation due to the fiscal largesse at hand.
great one-liners in here, especially: „The market always thinks too much is priced in and yet rarely is too much priced in ever, in any cycle.“ Love it!
Nice piece Brent! The chart on buying gold at highs was super interesting. Also, I received my copy of the 2024 Trader Handbook and Almanac this week and really like it. I'll be putting it to good use! Thanks!
Great write-up Brent. One of the better Speed Runs I have read recently. I particularly enjoyed the 2019 comparison chart. I think the difference in the yields and your comment ('rather high relative to econ conditions') could have a big impact next year. How fast we got there and how fast we come down (along with why we come down) could put a damper on all the soft landing talk but we shall see. It would be a fun exercise to add a 2024 'prediction' column to that table and then see how that plays out this time next year. I'm old school so I still write down a lot of notes while I'm trading (and eventually transfer to my computer) so I'm looking forward to trying out the handbook/almanac this year. I think you should make the next edition 'rocketbook' style though, love those reusable pages! One last note, my gold and silver futures say 'thank you' for am/FX! Cheers to that and cheers to a good weekend!
Great piece as always. One key difference that enabled in great part the lowflation of the 2010s and the printing press policy by extension was the implosion of the real economy coming off of the China Urbanization/Industrialization led boom and Shale. This left excess capacity in pretty much anything you wanted and most importantly commodity and energy prices that were rock bottom for a decade plus. We now face a much more resource constrained economy globally; ask any business owner and people, cost of money, energy, and pretty much any input but office rent is a problem.
The end of China's construction boom may give some relief to industrial commodities, but energy is no longer cheap; the days of $30-40 bbl of oil are gone. So are the days of cheap and abundant Nat Gas.
I am not a secular inflacionista, but also have a hard time seeing we go back to 2% stable inflation, 0% rates, and QE. The fiscal trajectory is also concerning. Crossing my fingers that we don't see the day the Fed has to chose between rates and the USD/inflation due to the fiscal largesse at hand.
Thanks Brent! You have a rare talent for writing succinct, valuabel and entertaining pieces.
great one-liners in here, especially: „The market always thinks too much is priced in and yet rarely is too much priced in ever, in any cycle.“ Love it!
"Europe experts (Jens, Alf, and George, for example)": Who's George?
Hi Brent, can you ship the Almanac to an oversea address?
Keep up the good work, astounding writing style
Nice piece Brent! The chart on buying gold at highs was super interesting. Also, I received my copy of the 2024 Trader Handbook and Almanac this week and really like it. I'll be putting it to good use! Thanks!
Yeah baby! Great stuff as usual. Go Brent Go.
Great write-up Brent. One of the better Speed Runs I have read recently. I particularly enjoyed the 2019 comparison chart. I think the difference in the yields and your comment ('rather high relative to econ conditions') could have a big impact next year. How fast we got there and how fast we come down (along with why we come down) could put a damper on all the soft landing talk but we shall see. It would be a fun exercise to add a 2024 'prediction' column to that table and then see how that plays out this time next year. I'm old school so I still write down a lot of notes while I'm trading (and eventually transfer to my computer) so I'm looking forward to trying out the handbook/almanac this year. I think you should make the next edition 'rocketbook' style though, love those reusable pages! One last note, my gold and silver futures say 'thank you' for am/FX! Cheers to that and cheers to a good weekend!