Many people shorted the inversion and made recession calls for 2023. Many people shorted the steepening. Many will short the uninversion. This is nothing like 2008. I’m not a permabull I will turn when the real economic data turns (claims Retail sales consumer spending and housing all show enormous strength). The problem with ignoring the primary data and scouring the details is the devilish negativity bias and confirmation bias that emerges. Not you but generally. Too many are looking for a reason to be negative and finding niche designer indicators that fit their priors. I’ll stick with the data that has been mostly
Useful for the past 25 years.
I’ll be bearish when the time comes and if you’re recently bearish congrats perhaps it’ll work out. Negativity bias is a huge leak though. So careful.
Pretty much everybody knows you short the uninversion and it always looks like a soft landing before it comes crashing down. You are not doing anybody any favors by encouraging taking headline figures at face value. The devil is always in the details and the details look horrendous. 2008 was also an election year. Cheers
Another great read - TY ! Damn I miss the muppets, however the current version of the Muppets seem to populate most Western Governments these days, so all is not lost ! :-p
Many people shorted the inversion and made recession calls for 2023. Many people shorted the steepening. Many will short the uninversion. This is nothing like 2008. I’m not a permabull I will turn when the real economic data turns (claims Retail sales consumer spending and housing all show enormous strength). The problem with ignoring the primary data and scouring the details is the devilish negativity bias and confirmation bias that emerges. Not you but generally. Too many are looking for a reason to be negative and finding niche designer indicators that fit their priors. I’ll stick with the data that has been mostly
Useful for the past 25 years.
I’ll be bearish when the time comes and if you’re recently bearish congrats perhaps it’ll work out. Negativity bias is a huge leak though. So careful.
Pretty much everybody knows you short the uninversion and it always looks like a soft landing before it comes crashing down. You are not doing anybody any favors by encouraging taking headline figures at face value. The devil is always in the details and the details look horrendous. 2008 was also an election year. Cheers
great read once again Brent. And its definitely cool to listen to Ed Sheeran, hes amazing live too
Another great read - TY ! Damn I miss the muppets, however the current version of the Muppets seem to populate most Western Governments these days, so all is not lost ! :-p
No Way